OpenAI’s ad revenue forecast is on pace to miss its 2030 target by 90%, according to Emarketer.
OpenAI projected $2.5 billion in ad revenue this year and $100 billion by 2030. Emarketer estimates the entire U.S. market for standalone chatbot ads will generate less than $1 billion this year and $5.41 billion by 2030.
OpenAI’s target. OpenAI began testing ChatGPT ads in February. By April, the company projected that ad revenue would grow to $100 billion within five years. But that forecast is larger than Emarketer’s 2030 estimate for the full U.S. chatbot ad market.
What Emarketer measured. Emarketer’s estimate covers standalone chatbots in the U.S., including ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Mode and Amazon Alexa for Shopping, formerly Rufus. The research firm’s forecast puts the 2030 market ceiling at $5.41 billion, far below OpenAI’s target for its ad business alone.
Why we care. Chatbot ads are still a small market, despite growing interest in AI search and shopping. The gap between OpenAI’s target and Emarketer’s forecast shows ChatGPT Ads have a long way to go.
Assumptions vs. reality? OpenAI’s forecast assumes the company will capture search ad budgets at scale, dominate a mature chatbot ad market, and outperform every ad format in history, Adweek reported. Emarketer’s data points to a much smaller market.
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